More good info shared by Mr Sitton
Another bit of misinformation or misinterpretation of data has surfaced regarding the Humble ISD Bond Referendum. A tax rate model was produced to show the projected growth rate of the local assessed value. It shows a 5% increase in local assessed value from 2019 - 2025. Why that time period? PASA projects Humble ISD student population to grow to 52,000 or as high as 55,000 by 2025. The rationale for this projection is the growth of new homes projected throughout the district. So to say that every homeowner is projected, in this document, to have their taxes increase by 5% is a false interpretation. Next, what does this projection show at the conclusion of 2025? It shows zero assessed value growth for 30 years. What does this mean? It assumes that there would be zero HCAD increases in value for 30 years. So to clarify these two points: HCAD appraisals change annually. I personally protest my appraised value yearly. This model assumes that taxable assessed value is frozen for 30 years after the assumed buildout of the district. Pretty conservative to say the least. Lastly, in 2031 most existing debt (23 years) will be paid off and the debt service fund surplus grows. At this point, the district could possibly reduce taxes, go to the voters for new debt, etc. The other thing this chart does not show or talk about is retiring debt/paying off prior to maturity which is a common practice historically in Humble ISD.
Lastly, as I mentioned a week ago, if taxable assessed value goes down thus reducing our debt capacity, bonds cannot be sold. The voters are authorizing the sell but the actual act of selling and incurring debt will occur over a projected 6 year period. Again, the 2008 bond referendum, as an example, was scheduled for 4 - 5 years. Due to the recession, it reduced revenue thus preventing Humble ISD from selling bonds and therefore not incurring additional debt. The final allotment was not sold until 2016.