The total deaths is definitely the number to watch, and total deaths per million of population is even better, because since we still aren't testing nationally in sufficient numbers the death count has to be the more accurate of the two.
And for the conspiracy theorists complaining about the numbers from China, You are saying they released real numbers for a while then stopped for some reason? They were winding down emergency hospitals last week. They are extremely organized and more apt to listen to their governments advice/orders, I really don't doubt they got the thing under control and they had a head start on us.